Decision Tree Problem

Jessica has been awarded a contract to produce dresses of her design by a small retail chain.  The chain will take delivery of 50 dresses right now.  But future releases will depend on actual sales. 

 

The chain has provided a set of estimates of sales for the upcoming year:

 

Demand

# of Dresses *

Probability

Low

1000

30%

Medium

2000

40%

High

3000

30%

* includes the 50 already released.

Jessica has 3 options:

            A:  make the dresses herself, no fixed costs, profit will be $10.00 per dress.

            B:  buy equipment and hire part time help; equipment costs will be $5,000, profit   per dress will be $15.00.

            C:  contract out to a sewing shop, up front is a one time cost of $10,000, profit per            dress will be $20.00.

 

Question:  which option should Jessica select?

 

Payout table and Decision Tree are required.

 

Hint:  Decision tree will have 3 major branches and each major branch will have 3 branches.

Field of study: 
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